'We simply don't know' - JP Morgan struggling to forecast oil prices due to US-Iran war
geopolitical_conflict_energy_shockMiddle EastBBC18 Sept, 17:57 UTC
Context
'We simply don't know' - JP Morgan struggling to forecast oil prices due to US-Iran war BBC Oil's shrug emoji era Axios Opinion | The Iran war has disrupted oil markets. The fallout goes beyond that. The Washington Post Energy markets grapple with Iran war uncertainty: 'We simply don't know how to model the endgame' Yahoo Finance JPMorgan drops Iran war oil forecast as redlines are crossed qz.com
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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