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Oil Prices Set for More Volatility After Latest Iranian Attack in Strait of Hormuz

energy_supply_shockMiddle EastNew York Times12 Jul, 02:13 UTC

Context

Crude oil prices jumped above prewar levels this week, demonstrating Iran’s capacity to move energy prices by projecting power in the Strait of Hormuz.

What it means

This headline is a continuation of an ongoing Strait of Hormuz risk situation that delfee has tracked for 38 days across 127 prior signals. The core calls — higher Brent crude, WTI, and gold — have already been made repeatedly. The current report confirms Iran's capacity to move prices but introduces no new actor, escalation, or channel beyond what is already reflected in prior signals and current prices.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 12 Jul, 02:20 UTC