The Fed was expected to hike interest rates in September. Don't bet on that now, economists say.
monetary_policyUnited StatesCBS News7 Aug, 18:33 UTC
Context
The Fed was expected to hike interest rates in September. Don't bet on that now, economists say. CBS News U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July CNBC Labor Market Shifts Into Reverse The New York Times What the jobs report can’t tell us about the confounding economic moment CNN 'Weaker than we thought': Jobs surprise deals setback for GOP in elections Politico
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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