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Trump again threatens to strike Iran’s power plants amid impasse over strait of Hormuz

military_conflictMiddle EastThe Guardian14 Jul, 23:59 UTC

Context

US president says he will knock out all Iran’s power plants and bridges next week in bid to force Tehran to agree to a deal Middle East crisis – live updates President Donald Trump has threatened to expand US strikes on Iran next week to target power plants and bridges if Tehran does not agree to a deal amid a continuing dispute over the strait of Hormuz. “Next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants. Next week comes the bridges,” Trump said in a Fox News interview on Tuesday. “We’re going to knock out all their power plants. We’re going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate.” Continue reading...

What it means

No call: the only market channels here were low-conviction — below our selectivity bar, where the track record shows no reliable edge.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 15 Jul, 00:15 UTC