Jeff Currie on ‘Dangerous Phase’ of Commodities Rally, $5 Gasoline
energy_supply_shockGlobalBloomberg11 Sept, 11:53 UTC
Context
Jeff Currie, founder & CEO at Real Macro and co-founder & director at 1947 Oil and Gas, discusses the impact of China’s return to the oil market, shortages in oil and crude products, and the possibility of $5 gasoline in the US ahead of the midterm elections. (Source: Bloomberg)
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 11 Sept, 11:58 UTC