Oil prices climb as Iran talks hit new impasse; Tui hit by high fuel costs – business live
Context
Brent crude prices hover near $90 per barrel, as fallout from Iran war hits travel firm Tui’s profits Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy. Oil prices are still on the rise, as fresh attacks on ships raise concerns about disruptions to Middle Eastern fuel supplies, adding to doubts over the prospects of a US-Iran peace deal. Yesterday, the rally in US crude paused for a minute after Pakistan’s Defence Minister said that they were getting “close to some sort of arrangement”, but the relief remained short-lived after Iran added that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the conditions it demands from the US are met. And the conditions that both parties demand from each other suggest that the problems won’t be solved by tomorrow. 1.30pm BST: US inflation data for July Continue reading...
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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