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Ethiopia’s army promises restraint amid fears of new civil war

military_conflictHorn of AfricaAl Jazeera27 Sept, 05:05 UTC

Context

Ethiopia’s army promises restraint amid fears of new civil war  Al Jazeera The rebel offensive threatening to unleash war across Horn of Africa  The Telegraph Telecoms networks disrupted in Tigray as Ethiopia's military cites major losses by rebels  Reuters Ethiopia risks a wider war. Here are 5 things to know  AP News Ethiopia slides back into war. Who is involved and why?  Le Monde.fr

What it means

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 27 Sept, 09:43 UTC