Brian Sullivan: Why the 'real' price of oil is likely $30-$40 higher than where it is now
energy_supply_shockMiddle EastCNBC15 Oct, 19:53 UTC
Context
Brian Sullivan: Why the 'real' price of oil is likely $30-$40 higher than where it is now CNBC COMMENTARY: Oil's long view darkens as Iran war refuses to end Reuters The oil market is facing a transportation crisis that suggests energy costs aren't falling soon Business Insider Oil flow through Strait of Hormuz hits 12M barrels a day — defying increasing attacks from Iran New York Post World’s Energy Order Tested Again as Iran War’s Reach Extends Further The New York Times
What it means
Causal chain
No clear market signal
How to read a signal
- Severity
- the event's market impact, 1–5
- Direction
- ↑ / ↓ likely price move for the asset
- Exp. move
- the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).Ssmall<1%Mmoderate1–5%Llarge>5%
- Timeframe
- the window we measure over:1dshort5dmedium21dlong
- Conviction
- how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:lowaveragestrong
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Sign up free →Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 16 Oct, 12:49 UTC