···
← delfee

The world is looking ahead toward a post-Iran oil market that offsets most Hormuz volumes

energy_supply_shockMiddle EastFortune19 Jul, 17:51 UTC

Context

The world is looking ahead toward a post-Iran oil market that offsets most Hormuz volumes  Fortune The U.S.-Iran battle over the Strait of Hormuz raises risks for global waterways  NPR Iran war driving up costs and putting seafarers at risk, UN maritime chief warns  PBS Some ships refusing US-military guided Hormuz transits after attacks, sources say  Reuters Dark Ships and Oman Transfers Indicate Hormuz Transits Continue  Bloomberg.com

What it means

No call: the only market channels here were low-conviction — below our selectivity bar, where the track record shows no reliable edge.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

Get the next signal the moment it breaks.

The full live feed, asset filters, and alerts — free.

Sign up free →

Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 19 Jul, 21:05 UTC