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Stock futures slip after U.S., Iran exchange airstrikes again: Live updates

military_conflictMiddle EastCNBC12 Jul, 22:16 UTC

Context

Stock futures slip after U.S., Iran exchange airstrikes again: Live updates  CNBC Rising tempo of combat in battle for Hormuz tests market's confidence that the worst is over on Iran  Fortune The Truce Is Loose  Seeking Alpha US stocks rise ahead of earnings despite higher rates and Middle East tensions.  Pluang The all-rounder portfolio that’s quietly shining in a world on fire  AFR

What it means

No call: the only market channels here were low-conviction — below our selectivity bar, where the track record shows no reliable edge.

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 13 Jul, 00:00 UTC