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U.S. Navy blockade slashes Iran oil exports as Trump administration shifts to economic warfare

energy_supply_shockMiddle EastCNBC28 Aug, 10:55 UTC

Context

U.S. Navy blockade slashes Iran oil exports as Trump administration shifts to economic warfare  CNBC Iran's Floating Oil Storage Shrinks to Five-Month Supply  The Maritime Executive Millions of barrels of Iranian oil sit beyond Trump blockade as he vows ‘zero leakage’  Fox News Iranian council head Mohsen Rezaee claims billions of dollars made amid blockade  The Jerusalem Post IRAN'S OIL MINISTER SAYS IRANIAN OIL SALES AND DELIVERIES IN 'DISTANT WATERS' HAVE NOT STOPPED DESPITE REDUCTION - STATE MEDIA  news.cgtn.com

What it means

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 28 Aug, 13:02 UTC