···
← delfee

Treasury 10-Year Yield Tops 4.75%, Highest Since January 2025

monetary_policyUnited StatesBloomberg31 Aug, 13:40 UTC

Context

The US 10-year yield topped 4.75% on Monday for the first time since January 2025 as rising oil prices bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates.

What it means

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

Get the next signal the moment it breaks.

The full live feed, asset filters, and alerts — free.

Sign up free →

Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 31 Aug, 13:47 UTC