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How the Iran War Will Determine Britain's Economic Growth

energy_supply_shockGlobalOilPrice3 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Context

The Iran war could “halt growth” in the UK economy as the success of Andy Burnham and John Healey’s economic management largely hinges on President Trump’s decision-making, a City firm has warned.  Big Four consultancy EY has said that the UK economy could perform better than first expected this year as its growth forecast was revised up to 0.9 per cent.  But economists at the firm said baseline forecasts hinged on the opening up of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing around a fifth of global oil and gas supplies as…

What it means

Causal chain

No clear market signal

How to read a signal
Severity
the event's market impact, 1–5
Direction
/ likely price move for the asset
Exp. move
the size of the abnormal move we'd expect if the call plays out — not a claim a move will happen:
Ssmall<1%
Mmoderate1–5%
Llarge>5%
Most flagged events don't move beyond noise; those count against us (see the track record).
Timeframe
the window we measure over:
1dshort
5dmedium
21dlong
Conviction
how well-established the directional call is (textbook → speculative) — not a guaranteed outcome:
low
average
strong

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Not investment advice · for informational purposes only. Generated 3 Aug, 14:02 UTC